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A股遭遇急挫 私募乐观预期生变

2019-07-25 点击:772

Affected by the ubiquity of the external news, the Fed’s interest rate cuts unexpectedly fell sharply, and the attractiveness of Baima’s blue-chip valuation declined, the A-share market unexpectedly experienced a sharp decline this Monday. In this context, the current private equity firm's optimistic expectations for the A-share market are converging. A number of private equity firms expect that the current operating range of the market volatility is expected to continue in the short term. In the case of market sentiment being suppressed, the main stock index is expected to be difficult to regain its uptrend in the short term. In addition, the current private equity institutions' preference and investment enthusiasm for Baima Blue Chip has also declined from the previous period.

Multi-factor triggers A-share decline

Affected by negative factors such as external news, this week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell back after last week's high, and the recent relatively weaker. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell sharply by 2.58%, 2.72% and 2.32% respectively. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3000-point integer mark after five trading days.

Xu Junzhe, research director of Shanghai Domain Show Capital, said that the A-share market was weakly weak on Monday, and the trigger was mainly due to the negative impact of the external news. The latest US non-farm payrolls data for June released last Friday was significantly better than market expectations, which led to a sharp drop in global investors' expectations for a cut in the Fed's interest rate cut in July. From the overall performance of the Asia-Pacific market on Monday, the stock market that was negatively affected by this news also included important stock markets such as Japan and South Korea. In addition, Xu Junzhe also stressed that this week's intensive purchase of new shares of Science and Technology has not had a substantial negative impact on A shares. On the one hand, the total amount of funds raised by more than 20 science and technology board companies is relatively limited; on the other hand, all kinds of investors participating in the subscription of new shares of the science and technology board will not only freeze the funds, but also need to allocate a certain A stock market value, but will A shares bring certain buying power.

xx此外,上海一位中型私募股权投资总监告诉“中国证券报”,A股市场周一大幅下挫,意外和意外。一方面,上周下半年,两市的交易量大幅萎缩。在一定程度上,它表明市场继续反弹。 “购买力已经不足。”另一方面,上周整周的整体股指走强。然而,主题股的猜测也显示出显着下滑。私募股权公司还强调,A股上市公司即将进入“中国日报”的密集披露期,这也在一定程度上加深了部分基金的观望情绪。

乐观的期望有收敛性

在周一A股大幅下挫的背景下,私募股权公司现在对短期和7月市场整体走势变得更加谨慎。看好A股可以继续波动的乐观预期,有一个明显的趋同。

鼎丰资产周一收盘后发布战略观点,称这轮宏观政策正在积极推进供给侧结构性改革为主线,保持房地产需求侧管理的力度。基础设施。外部消息,未来仍存在重复的不确定性。总体而言,第三季度宏观经济仍面临一定的下行压力。在此背景下,私募股权公司认为A股市场的两大主要逻辑自6月中旬以来反弹全球货币宽松政策和外部新闻导向正在发生变化,或者已经更充分地反映在A-的早期趋势中市场份额。从业绩来看,虽然A股上市公司的盈利增长率可能触底,但市场估值水平已经大幅度提前反弹,实体经济结构整体调整需要时间。基于综合因素,目前A股市场预计仍将普遍在上证指数附近震荡至3,000点。

上海六合投资副总裁陈震表示,经济数据将于本周六开始公布。预计相关数据将略有改善但范围有限。对上半年经济形势的分析和未来政策的调整预计不会发生重大变化。市场的关键是担心基本面将再次走弱以及政策宽松预期的升温和实现。总体而言,在目前货币政策高度确定,房地产市场继续面临调控的情况下,在国内货币政策再次放松之前,A股市场的基本面仍然存在问题。基于上述相关因素,陈震认为,本轮A股的分阶段反弹可能即将结束。后者市场将面临半年度报告和基本面下滑的考验。预计主要股指将回归震荡格局。

对于周一大幅下跌后A股的进一步走势,徐俊哲指出,投资者对A股市场和宏观经济的总体预期仍相对谨慎甚至悲观,这意味着市场崩盘后周一,它将在短期内继续。急剧下跌的可能性非常有限。另一方面,宏观经济目前仍面临一定的压力,周边新闻仍存在一些不确定的风险。在这种背景下,如果在不考虑宏观层面的情况下推出新政策,预计A股市场将在短期内持续两个月左右的箱形震荡格局。

白马蓝筹吸引力下降

值得注意的是,在最近的贵州茅台(600519)股票价格背景下,中国平安股票市场和其他金融龙头股票创出新高,私募股权行业对白马蓝等核心资产的偏好芯片也有所下降。

上海石城投资总经理陈嘉麟表示,过去6月份,A股市场整个月的表现强于许多投资者的预期。其中一个重要原因是机构投资者进一步推进了白马股票等核心资产。拥抱。然而,由于白马蓝筹股整体股价继续走强,相关核心资产的交易基于非常乐观的预期。过去,核心资产的股价表现远远领先于表现,这意味着许多白马股票的估值已上升至历史高位。此外,从投资者交易和配置的角度来看,核心资产正在从“强手”(即对基准的真正理解和信心)转向“弱势手”(仅仅因为股价持续上涨)。相关股票的相对不合理的交易结构,以及已经很高的估值水平,应该让投资者保持对核心资产的清醒。如果相关股票的表现无法接管“接力棒”,那么核心股票价格水平的空间可能会更加有限。

此外,上海联创涌泉的最新市场策略也指出,经过上半年和6月的持续走强,对于白马蓝筹板块的进一步股价表现,相关股票的中期业绩在七月变得至关重要。中期报告的表现不仅证实了上一期股票的“颜色”,更重要的是,它指出了下半年股价表现的方向。在此背景下,对于白马蓝筹等核心资产,投资者还应从中期报告中不断改进和合理估值,选择和优化股票。

与周一A股市场的整体表现相结合,私募股权分析师进一步分析,如果白马蓝筹和其他加权行业的吸引力继续下降为私募股权等机构投资者,那么市场可能需要一段时间。得到修复。

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